How Often Is the First Inning Scoreless?
We tracked the first inning of 1,154 MLB games from June 16 to September 17, 2026. Here is the NRFI rate, which team breaks it more often, and the parks at each extreme.
The first inning was scoreless in 50.5% of MLB games: a true coin flip. When someone did score, it was more often the home team.
The Short Answer
Of 1,154 games, 583 had a scoreless first inning (NRFI) and 571 did not (YRFI). That is 50.5% to 49.5%, about as close to even as a betting market gets.
The rate moved a little through the summer, peaking in August and dipping in September, but it never strayed far from 50%.
| Month | Games | Scoreless first inning |
|---|---|---|
| June (from June 16) | 208 | 48.1% |
| July | 347 | 51.9% |
| August | 384 | 52.6% |
| September (through Sept. 17) | 215 | 47.0% |
| All games | 1,154 | 50.5% |
Who Breaks the Scoreless Inning
The home team scored in the first inning in 33.1% of games. The visiting team scored in the first in 25.0%. Both teams scored in the first in 8.7% of games.
When the first inning did produce runs, it often produced several: 12.7% of all games had three or more runs cross in the first.
The Parks at Each Extreme
Where a game is played matters. At the top of the list, home games in Baltimore were scoreless through one inning 64.5% of the time. At the bottom, Colorado home games saw a first-inning run 69.2% of the time.
These samples are one team's home schedule, 31 to 41 games each, so read them as how this season has gone so far rather than a permanent rating. Our MLB park factors guide explains why some parks, Coors Field most of all, play so differently.
| Home team | Games | Scoreless first inning |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 31 | 64.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 33 | 63.6% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 38 | 63.2% |
| Miami Marlins | 35 | 62.9% |
| Houston Astros | 39 | 59.0% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 40 | 42.5% |
| Kansas City Royals | 33 | 39.4% |
| Texas Rangers | 41 | 39.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 41 | 31.7% |
| Colorado Rockies | 39 | 30.8% |
What the Price Was Saying
KingFish began recording NRFI and YRFI prices on August 27, so this comparison covers 272 games through September 17. Over that stretch, the average NRFI price implied a 53.2% chance of a scoreless first, and the average YRFI price implied 47.0%.
The results ran the other way. YRFI hit 52.2% of the time, above what its price implied, and NRFI hit 47.8%. Three weeks is a short window, so this is a trend to keep watching rather than a rule, but it is a good example of why the price deserves as much attention as the pick.
If you want to read these prices without the sportsbook's margin mixed in, our guide to no-vig probability walks through the math.
How to Use This
Start from 50%. The first inning is close to a coin flip across the league, so a strong NRFI or YRFI read needs a real reason: the park, the two starting pitchers, the top of each lineup, and the weather.
Parks are the easiest of those to check. The MLB weather chart covers temperature and wind, and the KingFish Dashboard lays out each day's MLB board with the best available prices.
How We Counted
This study covers 1,154 MLB games from June 16 to September 17, 2026, graded on the runs each team scored in the first inning. A game counts as NRFI when neither team scored in the first inning, and YRFI when at least one run scored.
Park results are grouped by home team and include only teams with at least 30 home games in the sample. Price comparisons use the 272 games from August 27 onward, when KingFish began recording NRFI and YRFI prices.
Common Questions
How often is the first inning scoreless in MLB?
In 1,154 MLB games tracked by KingFish from June 16 to September 17, 2026, the first inning was scoreless 50.5% of the time.
What percentage of MLB games have a run in the first inning?
At least one run scored in the first inning in 49.5% of the 1,154 games KingFish tracked in 2026. The home team scored in the first in 33.1% of games and the visiting team in 25.0%.
Which ballparks had the most scoreless first innings?
In the 2026 KingFish sample, home games of the Baltimore Orioles (64.5%), San Diego Padres (63.6%), and St. Louis Cardinals (63.2%) were most often scoreless in the first inning. Colorado (30.8%) and the Chicago Cubs (31.7%) were the least often scoreless. Each park is a sample of 31 to 41 games.
Is NRFI or YRFI more likely?
They are almost even. Across 1,154 games in 2026, NRFI hit 50.5% and YRFI hit 49.5%.
Notes
This guide is educational and should be paired with current odds, lineups, injury news, schedule context, and the price available at your sportsbook. It is not a pick by itself. Last updated: September 18, 2026.