How Often MLB Player Props Hit, by Market
We graded 140,333 MLB player props from June 17 to September 17, 2026. Here is the over hit rate for every major market, next to what the price implied.
On 21 of the 22 MLB prop lines posted at least 400 times, the over hit less often than its best available price implied.
Batter Props
A batter recorded a hit in 57.5% of over 0.5 hits props, went over 1.5 total bases 37.8% of the time, and drove in a run in 28.5% of RBI props. At the long end, over 0.5 stolen bases hit 7.6% of the time.
The table lists every batter prop line posted at least 400 times, from most likely to least likely to go over.
| Market | Line | Props | Over hit | Price implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hits | Over 0.5 | 17,460 | 57.5% | 62.3% |
| Total bases | Over 0.5 | 7,201 | 52.9% | 58.7% |
| Hits + runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1,937 | 52.2% | 59.6% |
| Hits + runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 9,245 | 45.8% | 50.1% |
| Singles | Over 0.5 | 11,544 | 43.9% | 47.3% |
| Total bases | Over 1.5 | 11,752 | 37.8% | 42.0% |
| Runs | Over 0.5 | 11,542 | 36.4% | 41.5% |
| Hits | Over 1.5 | 1,743 | 30.9% | 35.5% |
| Walks | Over 0.5 | 9,860 | 30.4% | 33.9% |
| RBIs | Over 0.5 | 11,566 | 28.5% | 31.7% |
| Doubles | Over 0.5 | 11,428 | 14.4% | 18.2% |
| Home runs | Over 0.5 | 18,105 | 11.6% | 14.3% |
| Stolen bases | Over 0.5 | 9,003 | 7.6% | 11.0% |
Pitcher Props
Pitcher markets post fewer props per day, so these samples are smaller, but the same pattern shows up. The most striking result is how accurate strikeout lines were: pitchers facing a 4.5 line averaged exactly 4.50 strikeouts, and pitchers facing a 5.5 line averaged 5.39.
When the line lands that close to the average, the number itself is not where the opportunity is. The price is.
Pitcher walks were the one exception in the whole study. Over 1.5 walks hit 54.8% of the time against a 53.7% price, roughly even and within normal variation for 897 props, but the only high-volume line where the over did not come in under its price.
| Market | Line | Props | Over hit | Price implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walks | Over 1.5 | 897 | 54.8% | 53.7% |
| Outs recorded | Over 17.5 | 523 | 54.7% | 56.8% |
| Earned runs | Over 1.5 | 404 | 50.5% | 57.7% |
| Hits allowed | Over 4.5 | 814 | 49.4% | 54.1% |
| Hits allowed | Over 5.5 | 655 | 48.9% | 50.1% |
| Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 566 | 47.7% | 51.1% |
| Strikeouts | Over 5.5 | 407 | 45.9% | 50.1% |
| Earned runs | Over 2.5 | 1,131 | 44.4% | 50.2% |
| Outs recorded | Over 15.5 | 451 | 42.6% | 48.5% |
Why Overs Came In Under the Price
Every posted price converts to an implied probability, and the Price implied column is that conversion using the best over price available that day. On every line in both tables except pitcher walks, the over landed below that number, by anywhere from about 1 to 7 percentage points.
Some of that is the sportsbook's margin, which is built into every price. Some of it is how overs get priced: a common explanation is that more bettors want the over, so books have less reason to price it generously. Whatever the cause, the pattern held on nearly every line with a meaningful sample, and our guide to no-vig probability shows how to separate the margin from the market's actual read.
How to Use This
Treat these rates as the baseline for each market. Before a prop earns a closer look, the player, matchup, and price should give a reason to expect better than the market average.
Price is the easiest part of that to control. Every number here already uses the best price available, and settling for a worse one widens the gap. The KingFish Dashboard highlights the best available price on every prop, and our guides to finding the lowest line and best odds and reading player prop hit rates cover the rest of the process.
How We Counted
This study covers every MLB player prop KingFish logged from June 17 to September 17, 2026: 140,333 graded props across 15 markets, 85 days, and 783 players. Each prop was graded after the game against the player’s final stat line, and props that were never graded were left out. Every line was a half-number, so there were no pushes.
The tables include every line posted at least 400 times. Rarely posted lines, such as over 1.5 home runs, are left out because their samples are too small to say anything reliable.
Common Questions
How often do MLB player props hit?
It depends heavily on the market. In 140,333 MLB props graded by KingFish in 2026, over 0.5 hits went over 57.5% of the time, over 1.5 total bases 37.8%, over 0.5 RBIs 28.5%, and over 0.5 home runs 11.6%.
Do overs or unders hit more often on MLB props?
On 21 of the 22 MLB prop lines KingFish saw posted at least 400 times from June 17 to September 17, 2026, the over hit less often than its best available price implied, by anywhere from about 1 to 7 percentage points. The exception was pitcher walks over 1.5, which hit 54.8% against a 53.7% price.
How accurate are MLB strikeout prop lines?
Very accurate on average. Pitchers facing a 4.5 strikeout line averaged exactly 4.50 strikeouts, and pitchers facing a 5.5 line averaged 5.39, in the 2026 KingFish sample.
How often does over 0.5 hits hit?
A batter recorded at least one hit in 57.5% of the 17,460 over 0.5 hits props KingFish graded in 2026. The best available prices implied 62.3%.
Notes
This guide is educational and should be paired with current odds, lineups, injury news, schedule context, and the price available at your sportsbook. It is not a pick by itself. Last updated: September 18, 2026.