How Often Do Home Run Props Hit?

The Short Answer

An anytime home run prop hit 2,092 times out of 18,105, or 11.6%. That is roughly one homer for every nine props posted.

The price tells you a lot about where a batter lands in that range. The shorter the number, the more often he went deep, and the pattern held cleanly all the way down the board.

What the Price Was Saying

Every American price converts to a probability. A +400 price implies 20%, a +500 price implies 16.7%, and a +700 price implies 12.5%. The Price implied column is that conversion, averaged across every prop in the row, using the best over price available that day.

In every price range, batters homered less often than the price implied. The gap ran about two to four percentage points, and it was widest in relative terms on the longest shots: props at +701 or longer were priced like a 9.7% event and landed 7.0% of the time.

Part of that gap is the sportsbook's margin, which is built into every posted price. Our guide to no-vig probability walks through how to strip it out and read what the market is really saying.

Why the Best Price Matters Most Here

Home run props are long plus-money prices, so small differences between sportsbooks are worth a lot. The gap between +450 and +550 on the same batter is the difference between an 18.2% and a 15.4% implied chance.

Every number in this study already uses the best over price posted across the licensed U.S. sportsbooks KingFish tracks. Taking a worse number than the best one available only widens the gap. The KingFish Dashboard highlights the best available price on every home run prop, so you are never comparing against a stale or short number.

How to Use This

Use the table as a reality check. If you are looking at a +500 home run prop, batters in that range homered about 15% of the time this season. That is the baseline to beat before you add matchup, park, and weather context.

Our home run props guide covers the context that moves a batter above or below that baseline, and the MLB weather chart shows how temperature and wind change carry on a given night.

How We Counted

This study covers every MLB anytime home run prop (over 0.5 home runs) that KingFish logged from June 17 to September 17, 2026: 18,105 graded props across 85 days. Each prop was graded after the game against the batter's final stat line, and props that were never graded were left out.

The price range for each prop is its best over price across the sportsbooks KingFish tracks that day. Eighteen props priced +200 or shorter were too few to report as their own row, but they are included in the all-props total.

Common Questions

Notes